On September 11th, the "continuously falling" futures price of lithium carbonate saw an uptick.

After the opening on September 11th, the main lithium carbonate futures contract surged by more than 7% at one point, with a midday closing increase of 5.85%, quoted at 76,950 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, data released by Shanghai Steel Union showed that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan compared to the previous day, with an average price of 73,500 yuan/ton.

Affected by this, many stocks in the energy metal sector opened and walked high, with Tianqi Lithium Industry rarely hitting the daily limit, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, and China Mining Resources increasing by more than 5%; in the power battery sector, Nandu Power Supply, Jin Yuan Shares, and Tianci Materials saw many stocks rise by more than 9%, with Nandu Power Supply's increase reaching 17.24%.

From the perspective of news, the rise in the stock prices of the aforementioned individual stocks may be affected by the adjustment of the leading company's production. According to media reports, Ningde Lithium's mining factory may be suspended. In response, the reporter sought confirmation from Ningde Times, but has not received a response so far.

A person working in the lithium mining industry told the reporter that the information they currently have is that the mining of Ningde Times' lithium mines may be temporarily adjusted, but the processing of lithium carbonate has not stopped. "What we currently understand is that there are more maintenance and production reduction in mines in places like Jiangxi and Sichuan, and there is news of suspension in the recycling end," the person told the reporter.

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A person from a leading lithium mining company also told the reporter: "There is a lot of news about (Ningde Times) suspension today, but most of them are indirect sources, and it is difficult to draw a conclusion (whether it is true) at present."

The news said that Ningde Lithium's mining factory has determined to suspend a line, and has not received a clear notice to suspend all production. The average grade of the original ore in Ningde's Jianxiawo mining area is 0.27%, and it takes 300 tons of original ore to produce one ton of lithium carbonate. According to the market's calculation of the production cost of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area, the cash cost of this mine of Ningde Times is about 100,000 yuan/ton.

In fact, the slight rebound in the price of lithium carbonate this time is not unexpected in the industry. The aforementioned person working in the lithium mining industry told the reporter: "Not long ago, the price of lithium carbonate showed a low performance that deviated from expectations, and we predicted that there would be a slight rebound in the near future." At that time, Chang Qiuyue, an analyst of the lithium industry at Longzhong Information, also told the reporter that if the production capacity is reduced during the peak season of lithium carbonate demand, it will have a slight impact on the price.

The reporter noticed that when the price of lithium carbonate fell to the 150,000 yuan mark, the 90,000 yuan mark, and other price nodes, the giants in the lithium mining industry had appeared to "suspend production" and "maintain production" to protect the price. Not long ago, on September 6th, the main lithium carbonate futures contract once fell below the 70,000 yuan/ton integer mark, setting a new historical low since its listing.

At present, it is the peak season for lithium carbonate demand in September and October, and whether upstream lithium salt factories will take measures such as suspension of production or maintenance to stabilize prices has attracted attention from all walks of life. Chang Qiuyue said that at present, it is in the peak season of demand, and the demand for lithium carbonate has increased, but due to high inventory, the impact on price increases is small. However, as future production gradually decreases, the price may pick up.During an interview with a journalist, Li Pan, a lithium industry analyst at the New Energy Business Division of Shanghai Steel United, stated that out of the 27 lithium salt production companies surveyed recently in Jiangxi and Sichuan regions, nine have experienced production suspensions or maintenance, with five already in a state of suspension or undergoing maintenance. Additionally, three companies have seen a reduction in output, totaling a decrease of 1,600 tons. The production suspensions and maintenance of the surveyed sample companies are expected to lead to a month-on-month decrease of 1,100 tons in September's production.

According to statistics from the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in July, the supply side was affected by the decline in lithium prices, resulting in a majority of hard rock type production enterprises reducing their output. Consequently, China's lithium salt production in July saw a slight decrease compared to June. In July 2024, the national output of lithium carbonate was approximately 53,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.5%.

However, the journalist also noted that the continuous downward trend in lithium carbonate prices has increased pressure on upstream mining companies. As of the first half of 2024, the semi-annual reports released by lithium mining giants Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium showed that both companies had net losses during the first half of the year.

Specifically, Ganfeng Lithium suffered a loss of 760 million yuan, marking the company's first mid-term loss since its listing in 2010. In the first half of the year, Ganfeng Lithium's revenue was 9.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.16%. Tianqi Lithium achieved a revenue of 6.419 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 74.14%; the net profit loss was 5.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 180.68%.

An insider from a listed mining company told the journalist that currently, the short-term lithium ore price trend is still relatively weak, but compared to upstream companies, there are measures to cope with price shocks, such as improving technological processes to reduce costs, and developing extraction processes that are lower in energy consumption and higher in efficiency.

From the perspective of lithium ore prices, a research report from Minsheng Securities indicated that during the downcycle of supply and demand surplus, the suspension or reduction of production by large mines is an important sign of the industry bottoming out. From the perspective of cost support, Minsheng Securities believes that the current lithium price is already in the bottom range, but the rebound and upward trend of lithium prices still await the reduction or suspension of production by high-cost mines. A professional from a lithium mining industry institution mentioned that the entire lithium carbonate market is currently in a slump, and adjustments in production by industry leaders like CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) could provide a short-term boost to the industry, but it may only be a temporary performance. At present, the long-term trend of lithium carbonate prices is difficult to improve.