economy 2024-08-05 178

Can India become a developed country? With the first GDP growth rate and a stock

Indian Prime Minister Modi once made a bold promise: "India will become a developed country by 2047," in his view, India has three major advantages: population, democracy, and diversity.

During Modi's tenure, India's economic development has been rapid, and in the first quarter of this year, India's economy has been setting new historical highs, such as having the highest GDP growth rate among the world's large economies and the stock market increasing more than 26 times from 2003 to now!

Such achievements are even more impressive than those of Western developed countries. The International Monetary Fund predicts that India will surpass Japan by 2025 to become the world's fourth-largest economy.

So, what exactly has led to the rapid development of India's economy? What are the opportunities and challenges involved?

A country with enormous potential

For many years in the past, India was perceived as having a large population, questionable sanitation, chaotic security, and other issues. This ancient civilization of India was also labeled as backward.

However, since Modi became the Prime Minister, everything has changed. Modi is 74 years old this year. He is the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He joined the BJP at the age of 36, was elected as the National Secretary of the BJP in 1995, and served as the National General Secretary of the party in 1998.

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Unlike other Indian officials, Modi has worked his way up from the grassroots level. He deeply understands what the common people lack and what they truly desire.

After Modi became the Prime Minister of India in 2014, he began bold reforms and practices, successively implementing a variety of transformation measures such as "Toilet Revolution," "Tax Reform," "Demonetization," "Prime Minister's Fund," "Digital India," "Make in India," "New India," and "India Replacement."In terms of economic development, Modi has carried out tax system reforms, abolished the provincial administrative units in India, and achieved a balance in the tax systems among various states, thereby better promoting the construction of a unified national market.

Modi has his own insights in governing the economy. When facing the ills in the domestic economic and social development, he can always propose reasonable solutions and plans.

Under Modi's leadership, India has made significant progress in the past decade, especially in the economic field. During Modi's second term, India faced high inflation, rising unemployment, and soaring government debt. The Modi government introduced various "Make in India" initiatives, which led to a decrease in India's debt.

During the pandemic, the global economy seemed to be affected, yet India became one of the countries least impacted by the pandemic.

It is important to note that with a population of 1.4 billion, since 2021, India has become the fastest-growing large economy in the world, maintaining an average growth rate of 6.5%, which is twice the global average.

By 2023, India's GDP reached an impressive $3.53 trillion, surpassing the United Kingdom to become the world's fifth-largest economy.

The Indian stock market grew 26-fold.

The Indian stock market has become the world's fifth-largest, with the Bombay Stock Exchange being the largest securities trading center in India. As of May this year, the total market value of all listed companies on the Bombay Stock Exchange,

Looking at the Indian stock market, it rebounded from its lowest point of 2,904.44 points in April 2003, and then the Indian stock market welcomed a significant increase, with the growth surpassing the 80,000-point mark, a more than 26-fold increase.

As one of the fastest-growing countries globally, India has attracted more and more international investors. They are optimistic about the potential of the Indian market and the prospects for economic development, thereby driving the rise of the Indian stock market.Foreign investors' favor for the Indian stock market is not only reflected in the direct purchase of stocks but also in their enthusiasm for investing in Indian stock funds. According to statistics, last year overseas funds injected more than $14 billion into the local Indian market, and the rapid economic growth of India also provided fundamental support for the stock market.

In addition to the favor of international investment banks, India's demographic advantage is also an important factor in the growth of stocks. As a populous country, India has a large young population and a growing middle class, whose demand for consumption and investment is continuously increasing.

There is another important reason why the Indian stock market can continue to rise: the strict stock market system in India. Financial fraud by listed companies rarely occurs in India, and if it does, it is subject to severe penalties. Therefore, listed companies, for their own safety, will not easily engage in fraud.

At the same time, the Indian stock market provides good protection for retail investors, and there is basically no such thing as "mowing leeks" (exploiting small investors). Due to the good returns for retail investors, it has also attracted more retail investors and capital to enter. Despite the rapid development of India's economy and stock market, there are still many problems within the country.

Great wealth disparity

A European think tank called the "World Inequality Lab" recently conducted a survey on the current wealth gap in Indian society. The report, as of March 2023, shows that nearly 1% of the population in India controls 40% of the country's wealth. At the same time, the income of these individuals accounts for 22.6% of the total national income. Now, the wealth gap in India has exceeded that of the British colonial period. The report also shows that India's wealth gap is among the most severe in the world.

The main years for the expansion of the wealth gap in India were from 2014 to 2023, which also coincides with the period when Modi was in charge of the economy. A large number of billionaires have emerged in India during this time, such as the Indian tycoon "Reliance Group Chairman Mukesh Ambani and Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani."

The youngest son of India's richest man, Ambani, could spend more than $100 million on his wedding, while in contrast, the poor in India cannot even solve their basic needs. They not only live in a dark and hopeless life every day, but they also cannot meet the most basic needs such as electricity, clean water sources, and essential goods.Mumbai is the largest city in India. According to this year's global rich list, for the first time, Mumbai has surpassed Beijing to become the Asian city with the most billionaires.

However, within the glamorous city of Mumbai lies Asia's largest slum—Dharavi. Dharavi is not a large area, yet it is home to a million people and dozens of families.

The main story of the 2008 Oscar-winning film "Slumdog Millionaire" takes place in the slums of Mumbai. This film has a strong satirical tone, showing that miracles do not exist in the real-life Dharavi.

The population density in Dharavi's slums exceeds 277,000 people per square kilometer, higher than that of Morocco, the country with the highest population density in the world. Here, each person has an average of 3 square meters, many places lack water and electricity, and it is even more exaggerated that thousands of people have to share a single toilet.

The reason these people live in Dharavi is that it is very close to the center of Mumbai, and the residents living here can serve the big city through labor and thus gain wealth.

The children of these impoverished families have almost no chance to rise above their circumstances. The only opportunity is to take the Indian college entrance examination, but the difficulty of the Indian college entrance examination is extremely high, earning it the nickname "hellish exam."

The vast majority of children from poor families can only do manual labor as they grow up, with no way to learn from the success stories of the rich. When the poor see the rich flaunting their wealth everywhere, they often do not mind, or rather, they have become numb.

Many people have already compromised with reality and accepted a life without hope. The reason for such a huge wealth gap in India is mainly due to India's caste system, which divides people into different social classes.

People of higher castes often enjoy various social resources, thus receiving better education, while those of lower castes are forced to do manual labor for a living. Even if these lower caste groups go through great hardships to obtain higher education, it is difficult for them to secure decent jobs.

Increasing unemployment ratesFrom 2020 to 2023, India's electronics manufacturing industry suffered losses of $15 billion and lost 100,000 jobs.

The situation arose largely due to the suppression of Chinese enterprises in India, which severely impacted commercial activities between China and India.

An Indian industry executive stated that since the geopolitical tensions in 2020 and the strict scrutiny of Chinese business by the Indian government, many companies have halted further investments in India. "If these companies decide to leave India, it will have a significant impact on the supply of consumer products and services, leading to unemployment and the closure of large manufacturers."

After Modi took office, he initiated "Make in India" to transform India into a global manufacturing hub and replace China's position, but the results have been less than satisfactory. Although the domestic economy continues to grow and the stock market keeps rising, issues of wealth disparity and employment have not been completely resolved.

Especially the wealth gap, the disparity between the rich and the poor in India is extremely rare on a global scale, and changing these issues is not a task that can be accomplished in a day, requiring changes over decades.

In summary, India also faces improvements in areas such as education, infrastructure, public security, and healthcare. When examining any country in the world, we must not be blindly arrogant but objectively acknowledge their progress and recognize their achievements.

Although the rapid economic growth of India has brought hope and opportunities, it also comes with challenges and problems. This requires the Modi government and all sectors of society to work together to find a more balanced and sustainable path for development.

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